Long track records create confidence. Sometimes too much of it.
Markets don’t care how long something has worked. They don’t care about your experience, your reputation, or your past success. There are moments when what worked yesterday simply stops working tomorrow.
There was a time when payphones were everywhere. Long-distance calling cards were a real business. Sears and JCPenney were dominant. BlackBerry was the phone. Each of those models worked for decades. Until they didn’t. And when they stopped, they didn’t fade slowly. They stopped cold.
Investing is no different. Proven strategies can create a false sense of permanence. We start to believe longevity equals safety. But markets evolve, capital shifts, technology changes, and assumptions break. The same strategy that compounds for years can suddenly become obsolete when conditions change.
A long track record doesn’t make something permanent. It just means it worked under a specific set of conditions.
The takeaway: stay flexible. Constantly test and re-test your model, and take time to step back, look up, and see what’s coming around the corner.
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